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A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.

That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Unprepared

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."

New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the book, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that strive for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.

Debates encompass identity markers, taxes, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and provoke dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.

Probability of Public Vote

McBride considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has has valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."

Call for Wider Discussion

Westminster must participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."