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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction

The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: positive announcements are delivered from various governments. Significant resources is devoted on restraining particular approaches. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "peace".

Nocturnal Warfare

As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from across the border, a ability afforded by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to counter approaching guided weapons flew past – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by Western partners.

Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: multiple launches fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely supplied through allied countries. Every firing shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly gives way to grim resignation: maybe the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and further power outages.

Persistent Threats

Not long after, a heavy machine gun engaged a aerial vehicle close by, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its destination.

Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: several casualties, devastation and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a dependence that European nations are demonstrably unable to fill in the near term.

Failed Diplomacy

The comprehensive proposal from US administration generated strong feelings, controversy and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.

Every new proposal from American administration unfolds according to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This trend will, no doubt, continue.

Strategic Calculations

It is convenient to criticize specific actors of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership works based on a premise well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House assumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to abandon the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the situation will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the near future.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, Moscow is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the outcome.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding people and territory but preventing a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its advantage.

Present Conditions

Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.

Summary and Prospects

It took a only one week to eliminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.

While new initiatives based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, largely rely on continued Western support.